Maotai, Guizhou (600519): Epidemic impact brings long-term layout

Maotai, Guizhou (600519): Epidemic impact brings long-term layout
A new outbreak of coronavirus pneumonia broke out in the beginning of 2020, and the epidemic spread rapidly across the country, causing a direct impact on the Spring Festival season in multiple consumer industries such as catering and tourism.The liquor industry has also been hit. Brief comment on the epidemic situation to the industry: Demand is affected by the epidemic in the short term, but it does not disappear. There may be retaliatory consumption after the epidemic is resolved. Leading companies have strong resistance to wind. The industry may accelerate the reshuffle in the future. The concentration will still increaseIn the traditional peak sales season, sales accounted for more than 35% of the expected sales, which were divided into pre-holiday sales, festive periods and post-holiday sales by time period.Upgrade of epidemic prevention and control measures (1.23) At that time, most liquor companies have completed sales before the Spring Festival, and the planned reduction in January is small. However, due to strict prevention and control measures during the Spring Festival, liquor sales (stock digestion) have stalled due to strict prevention and control measures. It is expected thatWill affect the second quarter inventory digestion and subsequent sales. The industry demand is affected by the epidemic situation (closing the city, banning meals, and encouraging large households not to go out). The short-term demand has been suppressed, but the demand has not disappeared. It has been gradually consumed (wedding banquets, banquets, etc.). The epidemic situation will be lifted in the future and there may be explosiveRevenge consumption. The epidemic is in Maotai: high-end demand is strong, and the scope of the blow is smaller than the industry, which is very limited. (1) From the perspective of consumer demand, Maotai’s outstanding social attributes, banquets, gifts, and other needs are generally completed before the Spring Festival, and the impact during the Spring Festival is small.However, due to the epidemic situation, the approval price also fell slightly to 2,200 yuan. (2) From the perspective of channel feedback, since December 12th, Moutai has implemented the first quarter of the 20th year plan. It is mainly released on dealers, direct companies, supermarkets and e-commerce channels. The estimated input volume is 7,500 tons. Grassroots learned thatMost of Moutai’s Q1 shipments were concentrated in December, and the dealers arrived in January to replace the goods. This epidemic had a small impact on Moutai’s shipments.At present, the channel feedback inventory is relatively small, and the sales have basically been completed before the Spring Festival, and the dealers have less financial pressure. (3) From the perspective of the industrial chain, Moutai is still the most famous attractive liquor variety, and the demand for Moutai by channels and terminals is still strong.A. The profit of Moutai channel has maintained above 1,000 yuan, and there is already a basis for price increase.B. The old liquor market in Moutai is the most mature, with a stable audience and a benchmarking role.At present, the price of old wine has a natural increase of about 10% every year, and the expansion of the loyal consumer group of old wine has given favorable support.(4) From the perspective of planning, Moutai will adjust the “Infrastructure Year” in 2020, and the sales plan for Moutai will be 3.Around 45.The volume increased by 11%, and the total operating income planned to be increased by 10% in 2020. The goal is rational and conservative.On February 4, Li Baofang, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Maotai Group, led a team to investigate and monitor the company’s epidemic prevention and control performance: unchanged plan, no reduction in tasks, no adjustment of indicators, and no reduction in employee income.This is the confidence and confidence of leading enterprises in Moutai in the face of the epidemic. Tracing the value of Moutai’s mid- and long-term investments: The 5-year internal growth path is clear, and there are more than expected. According to the company’s announcement, the company’s planned base wine output will reach 5 in 2020.6 earliest, it is estimated that by 2024, the sales volume of Moutai will reach 4.During the 6-5 period, the planned sales volume increase before 2020 is 33% -45%.In addition, the increase in the proportion of direct sales and the improvement of the product structure will drive the increase in the average price of the product. In summary, the company’s performance will maintain a steady growth rate of 15% per year for the next 5 years. Increasing the proportion of direct sales is the focus of the company’s work this year.The company has accelerated the adjustment of channel structure since 2018, and the proportion of direct sales has increased significantly. It is expected that there will still be 天津夜网 significant room for improvement in the future.First, punish illegal dealers in 2018, reorder more than 6,000 tons, standardize dealer operations, ensure that the company’s channel policy is implemented, and maintain the traditional dealer restructuring from the perspective of the amount of investment. Second, arrange the dealers according to the “rationalization” ideaSuper, e-commerce, group purchase plans; Third, substantially increase the scale of self-employment. The 2020 plan proposes that the scale of self-employment should increase exponentially in principle, of which 33 Moutai directly-operated stores will push 2800 tons;Established an e-commerce company, re-launched “Moutai e-commerce” and continued to optimize the self-operated system. Earnings forecast and investment recommendations We expect the company’s revenue in 2019-2021 to be 887 respectively.35,977.72, 1214.20 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.9%, 10.2%, 24.2%, net profit attributable to mothers was 406.66, 468.44,566.13 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.1%, 15.2%, 20.9%, the corresponding EPS is 32.37, 37.29, 45.07 yuan.The latest company agreement (2.6) 1071.0 yuan corresponding to 2019?PE will be 33 in 2021.1, 28.7, 23.7 times.Maintain “Buy” rating and highly recommend.