Sanli Spectrum (002876): The turning point of profit is gradually approaching, and the production capacity will be expanded and expanded.

Sanli Spectrum (002876): The turning point of profit is gradually approaching, and the production capacity will be expanded and expanded.

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved revenue 8.

83 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

99%; realized net profit of 27.7 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.

31%; net profit after deduction of 7.27 million yuan, a year of decline of 88.

43%; the company announced a plan to increase the number of shares, plans to issue no more than 16 million shares, raised no more than 1.1 billion US dollars, invest in ultra-wide polarizer production lines, of which the chairman plans to subscribe for no more than 40 million yuan.

Hefei’s replenishment and exchange rate fluctuations affect 18-year profits, and Q2 in 19 is expected to usher in a marked improvement: In 18, because the Hefei plant was ready for large-scale production, it began to expand the number of employees since the middle of the year.Accumulated drag, the minimum range reached 2736 million, an increase of nearly 20 million yuan compared to 17 years; meanwhile, due to the appreciation of foreign currencies, the company suffered exchange losses ($ 127.7 billion) and rising raw material costs (affected gross profit margin).The scale of performance has expanded first; quarterly, Q4 achieved revenue2.

37 trillion, reduced by 397 million after non-deduction, mainly due to Q4’s provision of 6.68 million impairment provisions leading to lead, Q3 has significantly improved in the early 18 years after adding back, can also be cut from the gross profit margin, Q4 single quarter gross profit 佛山桑拿网 margin16.

51%, an increase of 1 from Q3.

64 pct.

Although the company’s Q1 forecast exceeded 12-15 million yuan, we judge that Q2’s profit is expected to usher in an upward inflection point. The main basis for this judgment is that Q1 disturbance factors will be eliminated. In addition, the supply of polarizers has continued to be tight since the early days, and overseas manufacturers have adjusted.Price action is frequent, and some product price adjustments are expected to take effect in the second quarter, driving the company’s profitability towards an upward turning point.

From the quantitative data, the company ‘s raw material cost / revenue for small-size polarizer products is about 45-55%; the raw material cost / revenue for large-size polarizer products is about 65-75%. The volume of mobile phones in the second 杭州桑拿网 quarter ushered in the peak season.Drive demand for small and medium-sized polarizers, without considering some product price adjustments, such as the increase in revenue of small-sized products in the second quarter reached about 5,000 million, it is expected to increase gross profit of 22.5-27.5 million, such as revenue of large-sized productsThe increase reaches about 40 million, and it is expected to increase the gross profit by about 1000-1350 million, which will drive the company’s profit to usher in a significant turning point.

The production capacity at hand corresponds to 3 billion revenues, and the three-year high growth promotes the start: the company has actually been improving in the past two years from the scale of the business, but the report is not good due to factors such as the exchange rate and the increase in the compensation for Hefei factories. At present, the production capacity in Hefei is smooth.The follow-up structure is further optimized to increase the proportion of higher value-added products such as 43-inch TVs and laptops. By then, the production capacity of 16 million square meters will correspond to a full production income of 800 million to 1 billion. At the same time, the Longgang production line is expected to be put into production by the end of 19Starting to climb in 20 years, making significant contributions in 21 years. At that time, it will take more orders for high-value small-sized products, and the corresponding revenue of full production can reach more than 1 billion US dollars; plus the existing company part, after all full production, the company’s revenueThe scale is expected to reach about 30 trillion.

We compare the cost composition of the company with that of Taiwanese manufacturers. The company’s depreciation and labor costs can be about 10% lower than those of Taiwanese companies. In consideration of some price discounts in time, after the company ‘s large-size product yield climbs to normal, the net profit rate is expected to reach7-8%, profitability can still be made up, and since 19 years, the boom of the polarizer industry has significantly increased, and the profit margin undoubtedly needs to be reduced, and 3 billion in revenue has been achieved2.

5 billion profits.

It is determined to raise funds and increase the ultra-wide production line, with a long-term potential space of 5 billion to 10 billion yuan in revenue: the rise of domestic downstream panel manufacturers, the acceleration of domestic polarizer replacement and acceleration. With reference to the development history of Taiwan ‘s polarizer industry,(Li Te, BenQ, Chi Mei) total supply is maintained at about 45% per year. Considering that the internal high-generation panel line will further accelerate production during 2018-20, the size of the domestic polarizer market will increase from 15 billion in 2017 to 300 in 2021.The market demand is still growing rapidly.

With reference to Taiwan’s localization supporting rate and the progress of foreign factories in the country, in the long run, the domestic polarizing film industry’s localization supporting space is expected to reach about 13-15 billion.

At present, the main players of localization of polarizers include Sanlipo and Shengbo Optoelectronics. From the perspective of industrial structure, Sanlipo has a stronger card position advantage, such as only 2.

The 5m production line is not progressing well, and the potential future space of Sanlispect can reach 0.

9 billion to 100 million square meters, corresponding to the scale of revenue of 10 billion; if Shengbo successfully completes 2 projects 2.

The 5m production line corresponds to the company’s potential expansion scale of about 60 million square meters and corresponding revenue of about 6 billion.

The company plans to increase the income and ultra-wide production line this time. After production, the total production capacity will reach more than 60 million square meters, and it is expected to further enhance the company’s cost advantage in 43-inch and other products, while expanding the company’s large-scale production capacity to 65-inchAmong the high-margin products above, it is expected to drive the company to the next level.

At the same time, the chairman’s participation in the subscription reflects the confidence in the company’s future development. Reorganization. The company relies on its own technology and does not need to pay technology transfer fees. At the same time, it has strong equipment capabilities and an early breakthrough in investment. It gradually increases its cost-side competitive advantage.
Investment suggestion: The profit in the second quarter is expected to meet the turning point, increase the size of the ultra-wide production line, strengthen competition and increase future growth potential. We expect the company’s net profit in 2019/20/21 to be zero.

83/1.

65/2.

3.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 201% / 98% / 41% and an EPS of 1.

04/2.

07/2.

91 yuan, corresponding to PE is 40/20/14 times, “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: The RMB exchange rate depreciates sharply in the short term, and the adjustment of the product structure of the Hefei plant is expected to be slow.